← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 35% | 30% | 2.77 | fair |
| Burnley win | 33% | 27% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 43% | 3.11 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 86' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days |
| 2259.00 |
| 1468.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1487.66 | 1531.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.21 | 0.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.73 | 26.44 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 356.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |