← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 75% | 81% | 1.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.74 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 8% | 6% | 12.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alex Pritchard · Huddersfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Arsenal |
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Williams · Huddersfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 221.00 | 1133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1777.49 | 1441.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.92 | 10.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 31.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 27.14 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 258.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |