← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 40% | 50% | 2.44 | value: +22% |
| Arsenal win | 32% | 25% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 30' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 37' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Marcos Rojo · Arsenal |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 4.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1928.64 | 1939.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.75 | 16.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.86 | 1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 258.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |