← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 66% | 49% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 34% | 4.37 | value: +49% |
| Newcastle win | 12% | 17% | 8.17 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diamé · Newcastle |
| 66' | 🟨 | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Atsu · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 218.00 | 1009.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1598.16 | 1505.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.83 | 14.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.71 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |