← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 58% | 64% | 1.70 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.94 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 18% | 14% | 5.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 49' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · West Ham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 217.00 | 794.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1566.39 | 1397.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.83 | 9.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.34 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 222.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |