← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 71% | 75% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.38 | fair |
| Watford win | 10% | 9% | 9.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 51' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 85' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 337.00 | 886.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1510.86 | 1939.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.34 | 25.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.83 |
| league points | 20.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.40 | 2.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |