← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Brighton win | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 28' | 🟥 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Leon Balogun · Brighton |
| 37' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · Brighton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Brighton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Brighton |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1464.00 |
| 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1518.21 | 1529.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.46 | 15.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 74.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.57 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |