← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.72 | value: +10% |
| Huddersfield win | 17% | 17% | 5.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Terence Kongolo · Huddersfield |
| 57' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 61' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 64' | 🟨 | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lys Mousset · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2255.00 | 1129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1559.12 | 1447.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.28 | 5.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 324.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |