← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 50% | 38% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.58 | fair |
| Southampton win | 23% | 38% | 4.29 | value: +65% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 20' | ⚽ | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 53' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Southampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stuart Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1672.16 | 1933.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | 0.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 27.67 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 290.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |