← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 40% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 34% | 41% | 2.93 | value: +20% |
| Brighton win | 26% | 16% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Zanka · Huddersfield |
| 32' | 🟥 | Steve Mounié · Huddersfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bruno Saltor · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · Brighton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 1126.00 | 1461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1634.18 | 1712.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.85 | -0.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 28.66 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 330.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |