← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 63% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Burnley win | 13% | 13% | 7.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 77' | ⚽ | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | 🟨 | Max Meyer · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 456.00 | 2252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1713.53 | 1677.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.09 | -30.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 28.92 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |