← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 37% | 51% | 2.67 | value: +37% |
| Burnley win | 32% | 25% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Mee · Newcastle |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ciaran Clark · Newcastle |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2247.00 | 1000.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1688.68 | 1720.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.64 | 5.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.69 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -16.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 27.80 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 137.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |