← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 61% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.71 | value: +21% |
| Huddersfield win | 13% | 14% | 7.73 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 17' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 74' | ⚽ | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 573.00 | 1120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1437.42 | 1439.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.48 | -0.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 120.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |