← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 67% | 63% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.47 | value: +16% |
| Crystal Palace win | 11% | 11% | 8.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sakho · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 937.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1940.76 | 1706.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.13 | -25.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 72.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 27.55 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |