← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 35% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +5% |
| Brighton win | 34% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 26' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 28' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 28' | 🟥 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 39' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bruno Saltor · Brighton |
| 72' | 🟨 | José Izquierdo · Brighton |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1454.00 |
| 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1508.00 | 1565.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.48 | -17.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.93 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 27.36 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |