← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 88% | 90% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 11.92 | fair |
| Fulham win | 4% | 3% | 26.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 53' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Liverpool |
| 59' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Gomez · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 598.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1820.06 | 1380.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | -49.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 25.79 |
| state index | 1.20 | -1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 285.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |