← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 38% | 54% | 2.58 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.15 | value: +7% |
| Brighton win | 31% | 12% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 34' | 🟥 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 71' | 🟨 | Greg Cunningham · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days |
| 770.00 |
| 1440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| elo | 1379.13 | 1520.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.05 | 14.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -16.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.52 | -2.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 28.99 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.06 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 227.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |