← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.38 | fair |
| Wolves win | 29% | 30% | 3.43 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 27' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Juan Foyth · Tottenham |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 551.00 | 1586.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1432.13 | 1811.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.86 | 5.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 27.17 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 178.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |