← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 62% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.17 | fair |
| Burnley win | 14% | 17% | 6.85 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Felipe Anderson · West Ham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 68' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · West Ham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 84' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · West Ham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 186.00 | 2224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| elo | 1732.72 | 1695.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.83 | 14.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -14.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |