← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 62% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
| Brighton win | 14% | 13% | 7.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 26' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 186.00 | 1433.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.22 |
| elo | 1768.48 | 1733.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.14 | 23.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 30.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -16.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -2.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 29.02 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 347.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |