← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 59% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 18% | 27% | 5.42 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Man City |
| 61' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1581.00 | 850.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1820.34 | 1914.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.83 | 8.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 68.60 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 16.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 21.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | 2.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 27.12 |
| state index | 1.24 | 2.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 253.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |