← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 53% | 49% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.86 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 21% | 32% | 4.57 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 51' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 56' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 422.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1513.54 | 1761.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.90 | 40.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 75.00 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 26.18 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 17.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |