← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 68% | 71% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.52 | fair |
| Burnley win | 10% | 10% | 9.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 43' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Willian · Chelsea |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Chelsea |
| 61' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
| 62' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2218.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 4.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1705.17 | 1955.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.78 | 8.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.60 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.20 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |