← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 55% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.53 | value: +14% |
| Huddersfield win | 17% | 18% | 5.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 34' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 67' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 80' | ⚽ | Isaac Success · Watford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 299.00 | 1091.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1527.20 | 1441.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.56 | -20.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | — |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 27.49 |
| state index | -0.16 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 241.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |