← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 87% | 81% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.84 | value: +15% |
| Cardiff win | 3% | 7% | 28.98 | value: +116% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 77' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 84' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Liverpool |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 583.00 | 756.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1818.19 | 1387.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.40 | 0.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 61.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -2.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.22 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.73 |
| state index | 1.40 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -2.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 218.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |