← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 35% | 2.51 | fair |
| Fulham win | 34% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.71 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 17' | 🟨 | Aboubakar Kamara · Fulham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 72' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 73' | 🟥 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 85' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1091.00 | 2217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1710.01 | 1765.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.46 | 18.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.44 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.44 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |