← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 41% | 36% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.19 | value: +21% |
| Brighton win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1426.00 |
| 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1524.66 | 1438.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.10 | 35.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 62.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.99 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 26.15 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 238.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |