← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 55% | 67% | 1.78 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.67 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 18% | 16% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 173.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1574.97 | 1523.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.98 | -35.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 70.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |