← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 53% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.38 | fair |
| Watford win | 18% | 26% | 5.36 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 69' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Watford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 537.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1453.19 | 1512.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 65.87 | -17.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.88 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.75 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 29.23 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 157.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |