← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 44% | 35% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 41% | 3.25 | value: +34% |
| Brighton win | 26% | 23% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days |
| 963.00 |
| 1419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1502.93 | 1513.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.29 | 1.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.30 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.82 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 468.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |