← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 91% | 77% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 15% | 14.92 | value: +130% |
| Burnley win | 3% | 7% | 32.36 | value: +133% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 17' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 56' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 81' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 83' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 841.00 | 2210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.25 |
| elo | 1911.40 | 1537.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.45 | 1.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 16.40 | -14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.71 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.62 |
| state index | 1.97 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 34.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |