← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 37% | 45% | 2.62 | value: +19% |
| Fulham win | 34% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Andre Schürrle · Fulham |
| 15' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 19' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 20' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Cardiff |
| 33' | 🟨 | Aron Gunnarsson · Cardiff |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Johansen · Fulham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kadeem Harris · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 749.00 | 1084.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1373.72 | 1413.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.70 | -12.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.75 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| league points | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 30.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.74 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 26.14 |
| state index | -1.65 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 206.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |