← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 59% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.48 | value: +27% |
| Fulham win | 20% | 18% | 5.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 44' | ⚽ | Andre Schürrle · Fulham |
| 49' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luciano Vietto · Fulham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andre Schürrle · Fulham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1071.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1420.95 | 1736.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.64 | 34.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.71 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.57 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 11.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |