← Premier League 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 35% | 30% | 2.77 | fair |
| West Ham win | 34% | 34% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.24 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Brighton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1404.00 |
| 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1503.52 | 1553.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.53 | 25.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 74.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |