← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.16 | value: +10% |
| Burnley win | 30% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 69' | 🟨 | Greg Cunningham · Cardiff |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Lennon · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 729.00 | 2190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1382.18 | 1534.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.03 | -21.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.83 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.40 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 28.46 |
| state index | -1.23 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.83 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 265.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |