← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 59% | 70% | 1.66 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.88 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 16% | 15% | 6.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Zanka · Huddersfield |
| 67' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 1063.00 | 1551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1444.77 | 1810.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.61 | -3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 69.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 27.59 |
| state index | -1.19 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 255.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |