← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 66% | 68% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.88 | fair |
| Watford win | 14% | 12% | 6.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Craig Cathcart · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 151.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1720.74 | 1538.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.01 | 39.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 29.18 |
| state index | 1.14 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |