← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 70% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.46 | value: +8% |
| Everton win | 12% | 14% | 7.94 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
| 27' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Everton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 56' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 145.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1713.95 | 1560.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.95 | -21.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 25.43 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |