← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 37% | 28% | 2.64 | fair |
| Fulham win | 34% | 50% | 2.86 | value: +44% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alfie Mawson · Fulham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Timothy Fosu-Mensah · Fulham |
| 58' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 78' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1056.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1428.50 | 1540.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.91 | 54.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 29.03 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 23.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |