← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 58% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
| Brighton win | 18% | 23% | 5.52 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kieran Trippier · Tottenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Brighton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1391.00 | 1544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1509.53 | 1806.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.01 | -2.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 70.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 82.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |