← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.68 | fair |
| Watford win | 20% | 27% | 4.80 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 35' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 36' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 38' | ⚽ | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 65' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 257.00 | 867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1737.52 | 1952.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.23 | -20.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.01 | 27.55 |
| state index | 1.37 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 238.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |