← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +8% |
| Tottenham win | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 54' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1537.00 | 541.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1818.50 | 1797.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.59 | 28.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.70 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.01 |
| state index | 1.17 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |