← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 53% | 42% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.86 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 22% | 31% | 4.46 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ciaran Clark · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 928.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1525.73 | 1702.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | -0.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.05 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 393.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |