← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 58% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
| Watford win | 17% | 20% | 5.60 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Tottenham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 76' | ⚽ | Craig Cathcart · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 244.00 | 1524.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1529.69 | 1834.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.93 | 31.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 29.03 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.74 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 23.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |