← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 63% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.47 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 15% | 19% | 6.34 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
| 51' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 66' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 70' | ⚽ | Daniel Ward · Cardiff |
| 71' | 🟨 | Junior Hoilett · Cardiff |
| 77' | 🟨 | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 701.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1391.42 | 1698.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.98 | -24.47 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.33 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.67 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.67 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 26.74 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 214.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |