← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 61% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.02 | value: +6% |
| Burnley win | 15% | 16% | 6.72 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Man United |
| 27' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 44' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dwight McNeil · Burnley |
| 71' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
| 71' | 🟥 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2162.00 | 854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1695.96 | 1944.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.75 | -33.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.68 | 27.26 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 36.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |