← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 72% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 23% | 10.43 | value: +138% |
| Newcastle win | 3% | 5% | 29.28 | value: +50% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 30' | ⚽ | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kyle Walker · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 792.00 | 914.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1904.96 | 1527.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.66 | 10.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.57 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.65 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.67 | 28.09 |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 170.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |