← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 62% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.96 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 13% | 21% | 7.47 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 34' | ⚽ | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 36' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Everton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Huddersfield |
| 86' | 🟨 | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Zanka · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 123.00 | 1035.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1585.95 | 1457.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.98 | -12.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| league points | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 82.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |