← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 45% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Fulham win | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Andre Schürrle · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Davy Pröpper · Brighton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stefan Johansen · Fulham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1370.00 | 1035.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1511.52 | 1426.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | -3.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.47 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 68.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 56.67 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 26.45 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 68.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |