← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 33% | 23% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 40% | 3.35 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 24' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
| 77' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 848.00 | 1518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1786.24 | 1815.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.66 | -4.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 255.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |